Illinois Institute of Technology, hickernell@illinoistech.edu
Joint work with Claude Hall, Jr., Jimmy Nguyen, Larysa Matiukha, Alexander Pride,
Aleksei G. Sorokin, and the qmcpy development team
Supported in part by NSF-DMS-2316011 · Thanks to the organizers
SIAM Conference on Uncertainty Quantification (UQ26), Minneapolis, MN
🔗 Slides: fjhickernell.github.io/SIAMUQ26/slides/SIAMUQ2026.html
March 23, 2026
For \(\vx_0, \vx_1, \ldots \,\alert{\IIDsim}\, \Unif[0,1]^d\) \[\begin{multline*} \sqrt{\Ex\left[ \left( \int_{[0,1]^d} f(\vx) \, \dif \vx - \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} f(\vx_i) \right)^2 \right]} \\ = \alert{n^{-1/2}} \std(f) \end{multline*}\]
For carefully chosen \(\vx_0, \vx_1, \ldots \,\alert{\LDsim}\, \Unif[0,1]^d\) \[\begin{multline*} \left\lvert \int_{[0,1]^d} f(\vx) \, \dif \vx - \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} f(\vx_i) \right\rvert \\ \le \underbracket{\Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n-1}\bigr)}_{\Order(\alert{n^{-1+\delta}}) \text{ or \class{alert}{better}}} \, \lVert f \rVert_{\cf} \ \href{https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.03644}{\text{HKS26}} \end{multline*}\]
Faster convergence: \(\Order(n^{-1+\delta})\) for any \(\delta > 0\)
BUT
The cure is to randomize the sequence, not to drop points
Maintain balance that ensures low discrepancy
Preserve the structure that allows for error bounds and stopping criteria, especially for Sobol’ and lattice sequences for \(n = 1, b, b^2, \ldots\)
The LD community urges users and libraries to keep \(\vx_0\) in the sequence, (SciPy, success) and not to skip points (MATLAB, not yet succeeded)
But what if
There is missing data, \(f(\vx_{i_1}), f(\vx_{i_2}), \ldots, f(\vx_{i_{n_0}})\)?
We run out of budget before we reach the desired sample size?
Building on HKKN12 we note that (see the proofs)
Suppose \(\Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n_m-1}\bigr) \le C n_m^{-p}\) for a sequence of preferred sample sizes, \(n_1, n_2, \ldots\):
If \(p > 1\), then \(n_{m+1} - n_m\) cannot be bounded
If you lose/gain a bounded number of arbitrary data, i.e., \(n = n_m \pm n_0\), then \(\Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n-1}\bigr) = \Order\bigl(n_m^{-\min(p,1)}\bigr)\)
If \(p \le 1\), then you do not lose any thing asymptotically
If \(p > 1\), then you still have \(\Order(n_m^{-1})\) convergence
If you lose/gain a bounded proportion of data, \(\alpha\), then \(\Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n-1}\bigr) \lesssim \alpha\)
\[\begin{align*} \vx_i &= \phi_b(i) \vzeta + \vDelta \bmod \vone \\ \boldsymbol{\zeta} & \in \mathbb{N}^d, \quad \boldsymbol{\Delta} \in [0,1)^d\\ \phi_b\bigl((\cdots i_2 i_1 i_0)_{b} \bigr) & = {}_b0.i_0 i_1 i_2 \cdots \\ \phi_2(6) = \phi_2\bigl((110)_2\bigr) & = {}_20.011 = 0.375 = 3/8 \end{align*}\]
\[\begin{align*} \vx_i &= i\boldsymbol{\zeta} + \boldsymbol{\Delta} \bmod \boldsymbol{1} \\ \boldsymbol{\zeta}, \boldsymbol{\Delta} & \in [0,1)^d\\ \end{align*}\]
\[\begin{align*} \Dsc^2\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n-1}, \cf \bigr) &:= \sup_{\lVert f \rVert_{\cf} \le 1 }\left \lvert \int_{[0,1]^d} f(\vx) \, \dif \vx - \frac 1n \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} f(\vx_i) \right \rvert^2 \\ & = \int_{[0,1]^d \times [0,1]^d} K(\vt, \vx) \, \dif \vt \dif \vx - \frac{2}{n} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} \int_{[0,1]^d} K(\vx_i, \vx) \, \dif \vx + \frac{1}{n^2} \sum_{i,j=0}^{n-1} K(\vx_i, \vx_j) \\ & \qquad \qquad \text{where } K \text{ is the reproducing kernel of the Hilbert space } \cf \ \href{https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.03644}{\text{HKS26}} \end{align*}\]
\[\begin{gather*} \ESD \bigl (\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n-1}, \cf \bigr) := \Ex\left[ \Dsc^2\bigl (\{\vx_i + \vDelta \bmod \vone \}_{i=0}^{n-1}, \cf \bigr) \right] \\ \WESD (N,d) := \sum_{n=1}^N \alert{n} \, \ESD \bigl (\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n-1}, \cf \bigr) \end{gather*}\]
\[\begin{align*} \textrm{ESD}\bigl (\{\phi_b(i) \vzeta \bmod \vone \}_{i=0}^{n-1} \ \class{alert}{\text{lattice}}, \cf \bigr) & = - \overline{K} + \frac 1{n^2} \biggl [ n \tK(\boldsymbol{0}) + \sum_{k=1}^{b^{\lceil \log_b n\rceil}-1} \#_n(k) \tK\bigl( \phi_b(k) \boldsymbol{\zeta} \bmod \vone \bigr) \biggr] \\ \textrm{ESD}\bigl (\{i \vzeta \bmod \vone \}_{i=0}^{n-1}\ \class{alert}{\text{Kronecker}}, \cf \bigr) & = - \overline{K} + \frac 1{n^2} \biggl [ n \tK(\boldsymbol{0}) + 2 \sum_{k=1}^{n -1}(n - k) \tK( k \boldsymbol{\zeta} \bmod \vone) \biggr] \\ \tK(\vx) &: = \int_{[0,1]^d} K(\vx + \vy \bmod \boldsymbol{1}, \vy) \, \dif \vy \qquad \overline{K} : = \int_{[0,1]^d} \tK(\vx) \, \dif \vx\\ \#_n(k) &: = \mathrm{card}\bigl \{k : \phi_b(k) = \phi_b(i) - \phi_b(j) \bmod 1 \\ & \qquad \qquad \text{ s.t. } i, j, \in \{0, \ldots, n-1 \} \bigr\} \\ \WESD (N,d) & := \sum_{n=1}^N \alert{n} \, \ESD \left (\begin{Bmatrix} \{\phi_b(i) \vzeta \bmod \vone \}_{i=0}^{n-1} \text{ lattice} \\ \{i \vzeta \bmod \vone \}_{i=0}^{n-1} \text{ Kronecker} \end{Bmatrix}, \cf \right) \\ & \qquad \qquad \text{in } \alert{\Order(N)} \text{ operations} \end{align*}\]
For \(d=1\), choose \(\zeta_1\) to minimize \(\textrm{WSESD}(N, d)\)
For \(d = 2, \ldots, d_{\max}\), choose \(\zeta_d\) to minimize \(\textrm{WSESD} (N, d)\), given the previously chosen \(\zeta_1, \ldots, \zeta_{d-1}\)
Comparing root mean squared discrepancies
\[ \class{.alert}{\text{Keister}} \quad \int_{\reals^d} \cos(\lVert \vx \rVert) \, \exp(-\lVert \vx \rVert^2) \, \dif \vx = ? \]
qmcpy is an open source Python library for quasi-Monte Carlo methods (develop branch has the latest features)
CKN06 R. Cools, F. Y. Kuo, & D. Nuyens, Constructing embedded lattice rules for multivariate integration, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 28, 2162-2188 (2006). DOI · publisher
DKP22 J. Dick, P. Kritzer, & F. Pillichshammer, Lattice Rules: Numerical Integration, Approximation, and Discrepancy. Springer Series in Computational Mathematics. Springer Cham (2022). DOI · publisher
DP10 J. Dick & F. Pillichshammer, Digital Nets and Sequences: Discrepancy Theory and Quasi-Monte Carlo Integration, Cambridge University Press (2010). publisher
H60 J. Halton, On the Efficiency of Certain Quasi-Random Sequences of Points in Evaluating Multi-Dimensional Integrals, Numer. Math., 2, 84-90, (1960). DOI · publisher
HKS26 F. J. Hickernell, N. Kirk, & A. G. Sorokin, Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods: What, Why, and How?, in Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods: MCQMC, Waterloo, Canada, August 2024, (eds. C. Lemieux and B. Feng), 2026, to appear. arXiv
HKKN12 F. J. Hickernell, P. Kritzer, P. Kuo, & D. Nuyens, Weighted compound integration rules with higher order convergence for all \(N\). Numer. Algor. 59, 161–183 (2012). DOI ·
publisher
R51 R. D. Richtmyer, The Evaluation of Definite Integrals, and a Quasi-Monte-Carlo Method Based on the Properties of Algebraic Numbers, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, LA-1342 (1951). report · (see Wikipedia)
For a fixed Banach space of integrands, \(\cf\), we have bounds on the discrepancy of any \(n\)-point set, \(\{\vt_i\}_{i=0}^{n-1}\):
\[ 0 < a n^{-Q} \le \inf_{\{\vt_i\}_{i=0}^{n-1} \subset [0,1]^d} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vt_i\}_{i=0}^{n-1}\bigr) \le \sup _{\{\vt_i\}_{i=0}^{n-1} \subset [0,1]^d} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vt_i\}_{i=0}^{n-1}\bigr)\le A, \qquad n = 1, 2, \ldots \]
And also that for a specific sequence of nodes, \(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{\infty}\) and a sequence of sample sizes, \(1 \le n_1 < n_2 < \ldots\), we have better bounds on the discrepancy:
\[ c n_m^{-P} \le \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n_m-1}\bigr) \le C n_m^{-p} \qquad k = 1, 2, \ldots \]
where \(0 \le p \le P \le Q\).
Note that for all \(n_- < n_+ = n_-+n_0\), we have
\[\begin{multline*} n_+ \left ( \int_{[0,1]^d} f(\vx) \, \dif \vx - \frac{1}{n_+} \sum_{i=0}^{n_+-1} f(\vx_i) \right) \\ = n_- \left ( \int_{[0,1]^d} f(\vx) \, \dif \vx - \frac{1}{n_-} \sum_{i=0}^{n_--1} f(\vx_i) \right) + n_0 \left ( \int_{[0,1]^d} f(\vx) \, \dif \vx - \frac{1}{n_0} \sum_{i=n_-}^{n_+-1} f(\vx_i) \right) \end{multline*}\]
which implies that
\[\begin{align*} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n_+-1}\bigr) & \le \frac{n_-}{n_+} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n_--1}\bigr) +\frac{n_0}{n_+} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=n_-}^{n_+-1}\bigr) \\ \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n_--1}\bigr) & \le \frac{n_+}{n_-} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n_+-1}\bigr) + \frac{n_0}{n_-} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=n_-}^{n_+-1}\bigr) \\ \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=n_-}^{n_+-1}\bigr) & \le \frac{n_+}{n_0} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n_+-1}\bigr) + \frac{n_-}{n_0} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n_--1}\bigr) \end{align*}\]
If \(n_- = n_{m}\), \(n_+ = n_{m+1}\), and \(n_0 = n_{m+1} - n_m\), then
\[\begin{align*} 0 < a (n_{m+1} - n_m) ^{-Q} & \le \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=n_m}^{n_{m+1}-1}\bigr) \\ & \le \frac{n_{m+1}}{n_{m+1} - n_m} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n_{m+1}-1}\bigr) + \frac{n_m}{n_{m+1} - n_m} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n_{m}-1}\bigr) \\ & \le (n_{m+1} - n_m)^{-1} C (n_{m+1}^{1-p} + n_m^{1-p}) \\ a &\le C (n_{m+1} - n_m)^{Q-1} (n_{m+1}^{1-p} + n_m^{1-p}) \\ \end{align*}\]
So if \(1 < p <Q\), then \(n_{m+1} - n_m\) must grow at least on the order of \(n_m^{\frac{p-1}{Q-1}}\)
If \(n_{+} = n_m\), and \(n_- = n_m - n_0\) then
\[\begin{align*} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=n_0}^{n_{m} -n_0 -1}\bigr) & \le \frac{n_{m}}{n_{m} - n_0} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n_{m}-1}\bigr) + \frac{n_0}{n_{m} - n_0} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=n_m - n_0}^{n_m-1}\bigr) \\ & \le \frac{C n_{m}^{-p} + An_0 n_m^{-1}}{1 - n_0/n_m} \end{align*}\]
If \(n_{-} = n_m\), and \(n_+ = n_m +n_0\) then
\[\begin{align*} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=n_0}^{n_{m} + n_0 -1}\bigr) & \le \frac{n_{m}}{n_{m} + n_0} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n_{m}-1}\bigr) + \frac{n_0}{n_{m} + n_0} \Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=n_m}^{n_m+n_0-1}\bigr) \\ & \le \frac{C n_{m}^{-p} + An_0 n_m^{-1}}{1 + n_0/n_m} \end{align*}\]
In both cases,
If \(n_0\) is bounded, then the discrepancy decays as \(\Order(n_m^{-\min(p,1)})\) as \(k\to\infty\)
If instead \(n_0 \le \alpha n_m\), then the discrepancy is no worse than proportional to \(\alpha\), i.e. \(\Dsc\bigl(\{\vx_i\}_{i=0}^{n-1}\bigr) \lesssim \alpha\)